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長(cháng)江水質(zhì)的評價(jià)和預測為題的論文摘要

時(shí)間:2021-06-11 13:50:28 論文 我要投稿

長(cháng)江水質(zhì)的評價(jià)和預測為題的論文摘要

  摘要

長(cháng)江水質(zhì)的評價(jià)和預測為題的論文摘要

  長(cháng)江是我國第1、世界第3大河流,長(cháng)江水質(zhì)的污染程度日趨嚴重,已引起了相關(guān)政府部門(mén)和專(zhuān)家們的高度重視。本文對長(cháng)江近年來(lái)的相關(guān)數據進(jìn)行分析,建立了對長(cháng)江水質(zhì)的`評價(jià)和趨勢預測模型。

  針對問(wèn)題1,本文采用“客觀(guān)性權重的變異系數法”和統計回歸兩種方法,給出了兩個(gè)長(cháng)江水質(zhì)評價(jià)模型。兩個(gè)模型各有特色,并利用模型對長(cháng)江水質(zhì)進(jìn)行了評價(jià)。

  針對問(wèn)題2,本文以各個(gè)站點(diǎn)間的污染物排放量作為標準,通過(guò)分析和計算,得出如下結論:高錳酸鹽和氨氮污染物主要集中在湖北宜昌至湖南岳陽(yáng)段。

  針對問(wèn)題3,本文采用指數平滑法,建立了時(shí)間序列預測模型。

  針對問(wèn)題4,本文采用指數平滑法預測了長(cháng)江未來(lái)10年的污水排放量。經(jīng)過(guò)分析計算得出污水排放量對長(cháng)江水質(zhì)的影響。通過(guò)優(yōu)化模型得到未來(lái)10年長(cháng)江的污水處理量最小值分別為:關(guān)鍵詞:客觀(guān)性權重的變異系數法,統計回歸,指數平滑法。

  The estimation and trend forecast of the quality of Changjiang River’s water

  Abstract

  The Changjiang River is the first longest River in our country, and the third longest River in the world. But its water was polluted worse and worse. It has aroused the attention of related government department and experts. This report analyzed the recent years’ survey of the Changjiang River, and had made water quality estimate and trend forecast model.

  As to first problem, the report has to methods: the coefficient variation of objectivity weighty and the regress of Stat. Each of the two models has its own characters. And it estimated the water quality by the two ways.

  As to second problem, the report made let quantity of contamination between two points as the estimated standard. By analyzing and calculating I find the result. The result is the main pollution, CODMn and NH3-N, is between HubeiYichang and HunanYueyang.

  As to third problem, it had the smooth exponential method, and made time list forecast model.

  As to forth problem, it forecasted the let quantity of contamination in 10 years future by the smooth exponential method. After analysis and calculation, the minimum of treading saluted water quantity is:Keyword: the coefficient variation of objectivity weighty; the regress of Stat.; the smooth exponential method

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